This note will examine a case from my personal experience. I had a copy of the marriage license of my great-grandparents, Julius Blankenbigger and Mary Garr Finks, from 1842 in Audrain Co., Missouri. The spelling as Blankenbigger isn't a distraction; by now, I've learned that is about as close as one ever finds. The problem was in finding the parentage of Julius whom one could assume was born in the early 1800's. Mary Garr Finks was no problem as her Germanna history could be traced back to many members of the Second Germanna Colony.
The Memorial Foundation of the Germanna Colonies has a published Blankenbaker genealogical history but there was no Julius in it. The name Blankenbaker (or its many variations) is decidedly a Germanna name. About all that I could be confident about was that Julius was of the Germanna folk but there was no clue as to his parentage.
One item in the published Blankenbaker history was suggestive. The family of Aaron and Eliza (Utz) Blankenbaker included Julia F. about whom there was no further information. Perhaps the Julia F. was a misreading of Julius, especially if Julius had been written in error with a long "S" on the end. Someone else might have read this long "S" as an "F". At this point, the odds that the parents of Julius were Aaron and Eliza were about 0.25, only one chance in four. This is not enough on which to bet the farm.
All of the Blankenbakers in the 1810 and the 1820 censuses were examined. The family of Aaron showed an interesting distribution. First, according to the Germanna Record, the family had three sons and four daughters. In the census in both 1810 and in 1820, the distribution is consistent with four boys and three girls, but not with three boys and four girls. All of the other children have indicated marriage partners in the Germanna Record which leaves Julia F. as the odd child out. That is, her sex is wrong. Suddenly the odds that Julia F. was really Julius have jumped to something like three chances out of four or perhaps even better.
I was now at the position that I could draw a proposed conclusion while I searched for evidence which proved or disproved the hypothesis. Very luckily, the evidence came, though not immediately, from another person who might not have even been aware of my desire for more evidence. Mary Ellen Clore Henson sent a copy of the information in the Ellen Francis (Blankenbaker) Clore Bible. Ellen Francis was the youngest child of Aaron and Elizabeth. The information recorded there shows that Julius Frederick Blankenbecker and his twin sister, Martha Julian Blankenbecker, were born on the 14th of April in 1814. The distribution of children agrees with the census as to their sex.
The odds that Julius, who married Mary Garr Finks, was the son of Aaron and Elizabeth have jumped to about 0.98. It is not a certainty as there may have been two Julius Blankenbakers. Though only one is known now, the possbility still exists of there being two men named Julius Blankenbaker.
There was another problem in the Germanna Record pertaining to the parents of Julius. They have incorrectly identified the wife of Aaron. In this case it is a problem of mixing up two Elizabeth Utzes. This type of problem is a perennial bug-a-boo of genealogists.
We gratefully acknowledge the work of John Blankenbaker who published over 2,500 Germanna History Notes via the Germanna-L@rootsweb.com email list from 1997 to 2008. We are equally thankful to George Durman (Sgt. George) for hosting the list and republishing the notes via rootsweb.com.