John Blankenbaker's Germanna History Notes
Note 1676
For a lighter note, I thought we look at the probability that Spotswood was descended from one of the Magna Charter Barons. There were about 17 generations involved. If each one of the generations has a probability of 0.95 of being true, then the probability that all 17 generations are true (which is required) is 0.42. That is to say, the probability the line of descent is true has dropped to less than one-half. It is in the realm of a guess.
Is the estimate of 0.95 realistic for one generation? Probably it should be higher for the later generations and less for the earlier generations. Why do I estimate the probability of the truth being so low in the individual generations? The data in the line of descent is not well documented and, in fact, much of it is the result of people trying to make an honorable line of descent. The publishers of the books of descents of the Nobles based their work on what people told them. And to ensure the sale of the books the publishers were not critical about what was given to them. What we have is something equivalent to "Glory Volumes" that were popular in the 1800's. Would you trust a genealogy that compounded 17 generations of data from these Glory Volumes?
What are your chances of descent from one of the Magna Carta Barons? Actually, they are probably close to one. I don't know what the particular of descent is, but I feel comfortable in saying there is at least one line of descent from one of the Barons to you. The Barons lived about 1200, or about 800 years ago. Assuming 30 years per generation, there would be about 27 generations. Your ancestry chart would need 2 times 2 times 2 ..... times 2 for a total of 27 "2's" slots to be filled with names. This would be 134 million places on your chart. Assuming that you had some ancestors from England, and there were 2 million people living in England at that time, then on the average every person living then in England would be on your chart 67 times!
If you don't think you are descended from nobility, you haven't looked beneath the surface at how the nobility behaved. Even if they had behaved honorably, there were cadet sons who fell out the nobility and became a part of the masses.
On the whole, I am not impressed by claims to be descended from Karl der Gross (Charlemagne), or from any of the Barons. Race horses have a better documented line of descent than we do.
(22 May 03)